What a week we had… 15th of August week has always been by tradition a calm week that all Shipping professionals at least in Greece usually slack –off and relax momentarily from our straining daily schedules… however how can you relax in full when the Baltic Dry indices are practically going crazy…??? The BCI is gone hot and Capes have rightly gone wild with China the usual culprit asking for more iron/ore to replenish their nearly used‐up stock‐piles… and the freights are going up… by nearly 45% passing also some of this momentum on the smaller sized vessel segments, a scenario so familiar that we wonder why we don’t rename the Baltic Cape Index (BCI) to the Baltic Chinese Index (BCI)… as it is China’s wishes and China’s appetite that purely dictates the wellbeing or mal‐days of the Cape Index.
The BCI has increased by 13% Friday to Monday, another 13% Monday to Tuesday, 10% Tuesday to Wednesday and another 16% Wed2Thurs…!!! In total in less than 2 weeks (from July 27th) it has regained more than 90% of its value (from 1698 points it has risen to 3210). The BDI has risen since its lowest point of 1700 on July 15th 2010 by more than 45% and has reached 2468
points on closing of 13th Aug 2010.
Overall we have seen a rapid recovery that has enabled most involved in shipping to improve their confidence and boost psychology and that is very important especially during the traditionally inactive month of August. We mentioned that China is very important and their import buying appetite for Iron/Ore is the key ingredient for the capes, as Iron ore accounts for more
than 75% of all cargoes transported by capesize ships.
points on closing of 13th Aug 2010.
Overall we have seen a rapid recovery that has enabled most involved in shipping to improve their confidence and boost psychology and that is very important especially during the traditionally inactive month of August. We mentioned that China is very important and their import buying appetite for Iron/Ore is the key ingredient for the capes, as Iron ore accounts for more
than 75% of all cargoes transported by capesize ships.
China has given the Capes a boost and there is even more shared optimism if we add the positive effects the Russian Embargo on grain exports will eventually have in the shipping markets. It is estimated that 25‐30% of this year’s Russian grain crop has been ruined as an unprecedented heat wave and drought has gripped the country for almost two months. Wildfires sweeping across European Russia have also taken a toll on farmers, threatening arable land with destruction. Moscow has imposed a temporary ban on grain exports, causing world wheat prices to surge to the highest level since the 2008 food crisis and unleashing panic on Russian food markets. However new import routes will be sought after by countries that will need to meet their grain import demands, and these new routes will add per ton miles to the grain seaborne transportation haul definitely pushing freight rates upwards. Russian grain exports are expected to fall to between 2m tonnes and 4.5m tonnes this year from just over 22m tonnes in the 2009, the Russian agriculture ministry mentioned. Exports could be even lower if the grain crop falls below the government’s latest 60m tonne forecast. Adding to this that grain commodity price will go up as market speculators and trade opportunists will try to take advantage of the situation, part of this commodity price increase will be matched by an equivalent share of shipping freight opportunistic exploit increase.
more on our weekly dry bulk analysis that can be downloaded from our website:
http://www.cotzias.gr/reports/weekly/Cotzias_2010_Week_32_Report_13_Aug_10.pdf
No comments:
Post a Comment