Russia likely to resume grain exports by July 2011

Contrary to Russia’s announcement on lifting country’s grains exports ban, analysis group SovEcon said it expects the Russian government to consider lifting the ban in July. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last week said lifting of the export ban can only be considered after next year's crops have been harvested.
This statement, widely seen as a key factor in wheat prices rises over the last 24 hours, was seen as a reference to the close of the autumn grains harvest, notably of corn, in November.
However, SovEcon's said that statement was more likely a reference to the summer harvest, which starts in late June.

Russia would have a good idea of the size of the crop by the summer, allowing a decision to be made long before the corn harvest was completed," it said
Moscow-based SovEcon has been at the forefront in revealing the drought damage to Russia's crop, and the aftermath of the devastation.
Russia was the world's third-biggest wheat exporter in 2009-10, when it overtook the US in production, before being laid low this year by its worst drought in history.
SovEcon's assessment comes a day after Russia's agriculture minister, Yelena Skrynnik, estimated that the country's harvest could recover to 85m-90m tonnes next year, below highs in 2008 and 2009, but above historic levels.

Source: Commodity Online